When will India attack Pak?
Indians are still seething over the Kashmir terror attack and want to know when will India avenge it. Let me tell you.
The impatience is telling. And it is expected. Let us look at the decisions facing the Indian government. In the previous post I explored all the options before Indian government for actions against Pakistan to hasten its demise. You can read about it here:
The question we are now answering relates to the timing of the moves. When will we start this process.
The short answer…
It has already started. The suspension of Indus Water Treaty, Visa cancellations, deportations of Pakistani citizens are the first steps.
But we do not want to counter-punch Pakistan immediately for various reasons. Firstly, they are expecting it and are prepared for it. Second, keep things simmering imposes high cost, something Pakistan cannot afford and we can. Let these costs soften them up a bit. Third, there are some intel inputs that China and Pak have coordinated some scheme which was set in motion by these attacks.
But there is a more important reason. The Balakot operation was a message to Pakistan to stay away from India and give us time and space for development. It was a threat not a solution. Today, we are talking about the solution to the Pakistan problem. We are talking about end of Pakistan. Opportunity has presented itself and I hope Modi will not waste it.
This is a surgery not surgical strike
Dismemberment of Pakistan will have fallouts. We need to plan for those. It will raise many questions:
Should liberated Sindh, Balochistan be left free to create a future Bangladesh or should they be absorbed into India?
How to deal with radical muslim elements within Pakistan? How to deal with the Bangladeshi elements?
How to deal with the radical elements inside India? How will these elements react to changing geopolitical realities?
Are we ready to string this Shiv-dhanush?
Consider the scenario where India takes over entire Pakistan. Will the radical Islamists attempt the takeover of this country? We need to be prepared for it. That implies creating a strong law and order system.
The solutions to Islam, radical muslims and terrorism are in corridors of Ministry of Education - not Defence. We need to reform that side.
At this moment, NO!
Even if entire Pakistan wants to join India, we may not want them. We may need to create an administered territory to remove the radicals, change the education system, and then improve the economy to prepare for integration.
A better way will be to accelerate the dismemberment and let the states stabilize as satellite states around India. We can include the states into SAARC and create economic integration. Within SAARC we should create a pathway for merger with India. This will be along the lines of the EU membership mechanism but it will become complete political and economic union.