US, India and right side of history
US, India and right side of history
India's neutral stand in the Ukraine war is inconvenient. Western policy analysts urge India to be on the right side of history. Are we?
Western analysts are pushing India to abandon its neutral stance and align with the West. It is a good opportunity to direct Indian military investments to the NATO countries, to the West and away from Russia. The recent salvo comes from Lisa Curtis writing in Foreign Affairs. She believes this will make India an unreliable partner of the US and thus harm India’s interests (unsaid threat). If it does happen, India’s suspicions of the US will be proved.
Both, India and the West, understand that India cannot take any other stance. Our position is difficult. India depends on Russian weapons. But more importantly, India depends on the Russian veto.
A player or a piece
On the geostrategic board, you are either a piece or the player. To be a player you need economic heft, military strength and ruthlessness to guard your self-interest.
As India became independent, it lacked all three. Not its people, but its leaders. Our leaders had illusions of grandeur - the ego of a player. But we lack the real power to be even a good piece on that board. Our non-alignment was grand in our mind, but the West saw it as running for cover.
A piece needs the cover from one of the players. There are pros and cons to getting that support. You become entrenched with that player. Soviet Russia played us well. While massaging our egos, it created a market for its weapons and products. India was teeming with KGB agents (the largest contingent outside the USSR by some accounts). Indian politicians were on KGB payrolls. As USSR-China relations soured, China too started to fight for influence within India. No wonder we have CPI (Marxist) and CPI (Maoist) both in India. [A recent example is how China is playing the Pacific Islands against the US and Australia]
Over time India improved. It became an important piece on the global geostrategic board. Still a piece, it began to hold its own. This was mostly strategic finesse than substantive power. PV Narsimha Rao managed a coup - meeting Israeli and Palestinian leaders and being friendly with both. We officially bought oil from Iran while sanctions continued.
It has become a player recently thanks to Modi’s foreign policy efforts. The economic heft (more as a consumer) is helping us flex our muscles. Indian military strength was always good, but improved equipment is making it sharper. But let us not get ahead of ourselves.
Western analysts are still trying to influence India as if it were a piece. Their assumption is that India needs cover against China (another player). With Russia now turning pro-China, there will be no one to cover India. The unsaid threat is China-Russia on the north and US re-joining Pakistan on the West, India will be in a precarious position. A more palatable version is that if the US is occupied with Taiwan, who will cover India. This analysis has many holes that Indian analysts have deftly pointed out. I believe that even Western governments understand these realities.
To move a player is difficult
India can be moved into the western sphere. India belongs to the democratic sphere and will have no problem joining the west. But the West needs to play it right.
One reason India seeks Russia is its access to veto. With two conflicting spheres (US-led group and China) against it, India will need access to a veto to prevent certain sanctions and other anti-India resolutions. India needs a permanent seat at UN Security Council. The US and other powers are ready to offer India the UNSC seat contingent on us aligning with the West. India wants it without strings attached.
India also needs support in terms of arms and ammunition. India spent $76 billion last year on defence (chunk in salaries). So assuming all the Russian weaponry is around $30 billion per year for 20 years, the bill to completely replace Russian weapons will be more than $600 Billion plus training and other costs. In context, the US has proposed a package of $500 Million for India.
Turning India back into a piece
The other way to influence India is to turn her back into a piece. From a US or Chinese perspective, this is not a wild option.
The US would be wary of an empowered India aligning with China into a China-Russia-India axis. As Indians, we find this ridiculous but it is one outcome on a spectrum of possibilities.
Similarly, China would be wary of an empowered India aligning with the US. This is more likely to us Indians and also to Chinese. The Chinese therefore have put pieces in place to check such a move. Their pieces: Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Mauritius. The Chinese also have a presence in Djibouti and other African countries in the Indian ocean. They are also in talks with Thailand to create a canal connecting the South China Sea with the Andaman Sea.
How to turn India into a piece?
The next decade will be the last opportunity to turn India into a geostrategic piece. India’s rise as a player is relatively new. The institutional mindset is still from an earlier era. This is not just foreign policy institutions but all - law and order, judiciary, military, civil services, markets and governance, infrastructure etc. The institutional development is catching up. If India fails to develop a potent institutional network we may remain condemned to be a piece.
This development can be scuttled by regime change using the Ukraine model. As I wrote in an earlier piece, Will India become Ukraine?, many of the tactics of Ukraine's regime change are already present in India.
Another way to scuttle India is using the Soviet model. This strategy is being pursued by China. It is organising all opposition parties within India. There is a reason Chinese representatives are meeting Rahul Gandhi.
The third way is the CIA model. This creates armed insurgency or disaffection within groups. China is using this tactic by supporting the Naxal movement, insurgency in North East, and creating divisions between Indian and non-Indian Gurkhas and other hill people. It is also encouraging Pakistan to fund terrorists and gangsters in India.
We are in a tough spot
As we gained strength and USSR lost its hold over India, we were able to ween ourselves off the Russian influence. We buy Russian weapons on fair terms not because we are beholden to buy them.
We are still fighting the Chinese influence war. This is still an ongoing influence war. We have some wins but now is not the time to ease up.
We do not want to entrench ourselves in a US orbit. We will always align with good values. And thus we will always have a soft corner for the US. But aligning with the US means sometimes aligning with bad tactics.
The geostrategic game is fluid. We have to play our cards right. Unreasonable ego and chest-thumping will not be worthwhile. What we need is Chanakya-neeti. It is time India follows true dharma. The thing about the “right side of history” is that our side is the right side of history.
My perspective is that we are in a transition that I describe as the Two Global Forces. There is the global force of centralized institutions of governance and finance, and the global force of networks of relationships. I see that the former has entered a state of weakness leading to decline. The latter are locally focused relationships that can have a global scope. I am more convinced today than ever that the future will be more locally focused as global networks of local people and groups address the real problems that the world faces through global networks of relationships. My question is why should India invest money and materiel in a war that is principally a local/regional problem. I am convinced that the only reason the US is involved is that we have economic investment in Ukraine that is under treat by Russia. Every crisis is a local one. So, is this war.