Trump Indictment -a dangerous game

What is the intent behind this? Will it succeed?

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

On Friday, the US Department of Justice indicted (i.e. filed charges against) former President Donald Trump - 37 felony counts related to the mishandling of classified documents, obstructing justice and making false statements. This is a dangerous game.

What is the game?

There have been worse abuse and negligence when it comes to Presidents handling their records and documents. The game is not about documents or Presidential records. The game is bigger.

1. It started with getting Trump NOT to contest for the second term in 2024. The establishment gave him hints by raiding Mar-a-Lago and trying to rekindle the sexual harassment charges against Trump. Well Trump did not get the hint and threw his hat in the ring.

2. The next part of the game is now underway. Here the idea is to get Trump at the stage of the Republican primaries itself.

   1. Trump supporters are seen as two groups - the rational Trumpers (who are anti-establishment but support only good policies of Trump on war border etc.) AND the radical Trumpers.

   2. Radical Trump supporters may be targetted at the very last.

   3. But most of the effort is directed at getting the Rational Trumpers to move away from Trump. Here the establishment is pitting DeSantis as a palatable candidate for the right. They have manoeuvred Pence to create an anti-Trump movement within the Republican party.

   4. I am not sure if DeSantis has a deal with the establishment yet. So expect a few other claimants in primaries.

3. The next part of the game is really about engaging Trump in this legal battle.

   1. The reason is immaterial. If these documents’ charges fail in lower courts, they will bring something else or drag it to Supreme Court.

   2. The idea is that this will tie the Trump resources into the judicial process. The courts and legal system are your best bet if you want to drag something and tie up huge resources while causing uncertainty and anxiety.

   3. What we are witnessing is just the groundwork being prepared. The preliminary part is to get Trump out at the stage of Republican preliminaries. If Trump wins the preliminaries, then the legal action will be amplified.

4. The legal battle as a means to track and change narratives.

   1. If you have support from judges, you can try to control the media narrative using questions, remarks or comments from judges against Trump or Trump’s lawyers.

   2. These questions, remarks or comments need not find their way to the final judgement and hence will not be material findings. The judges enjoy immunity and protection for making these remarks and comments.

   3. A combination of a garrulous judiciary and unrestrained anti-Trump media is hoped to cause damage to Trump the person and Trump the candidate.

5. The legal battle to restrict Trump

   1. The idea is that legal compulsion can be used to ensure that Trump himself is tied up and unable to campaign.

   2. Thus, even if he is the Republican candidate, his campaign should fail from a lack of focus or effort (because he is tied up elsewhere).

6. The final part

   1. The whole charade will continue till the election cycle is over.

   2. Post-Jan 2025, Trump will either be acquitted or pardoned if he promises to behave.

Trump is a spanner in the works

The odds are stacked against Trump.

However, if anyone can use the court system and media to get his message across it is Trump. Trump may massage anything the prosecutors throw at him into something that will rally his support base.

The main objectives for Trump are:

• Engage the radical supporters while not appearing as radical himself.

• Keep the logical and sane Trump rationalists enthused. This is possible but difficult.

• Convincing the anti-Trump Republicans will be a big step.

• The ultimate challenge is to make Democrats switch. This needs a miracle.

What side am I on?

As a non-American, I am indifferent.

• Trump’s domestic policies were mostly confused. But there were some moments of clarity. Some of these issues are squarely in the national interests of the US (e.g. Borders). I would qualify most of Trump's policies as having a small but positive economic impact. Trump’s national security policies were decisively positive for the US.

• Biden’s policies are differently atrocious. Biden's policies are an economically medium-positive impact, while his national security policies are decisively negative. The US needs a course correction soon.

As a political observer, if Trump pulls it off, it will be one for the books.

• The odds are squarely against him. The state machinery is against him.

• If he wins, he will bring down the establishment.

Regarding foreign policy, Trump is far, far better than Biden. Trump will stop the wars and be better at negotiating with Russia and China than Biden can ever be.

So let us get some popcorn and enjoy the spectacle.

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