Iran & Nuclear Weapons

Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. US is supporting Israel. So is this about nuclear? Is it about regime change in Iran? Lets dive in!

Israel has attacked Iran for developing nuclear weapons. Israel has maintained that it will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and will do everything in its power to stop Iran from getting access to nuclear weapons. This Israeli attitude comes from the fact that Iran, its proxies, and other Islamic powers have time and again threatened Israel with extinction if they get access to nuclear weapons.

The US, too, does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. For its own reasons, the US is supporting the termination of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Let us understand the situation in more detail.

Israel's motivations

For Israel, this is an existential threat. Iran has time and again clarified and threatened that it intends to use any weapon and any means to destroy the state of Israel. Iran has taken decisive action in this direction.

• Iran has sponsored Hamas, armed it and provided support for planning and execution of Hamas' offensives against Israel at its southern border. Hamas has used extensive tunnel networks, creating an urban warfare nightmare, hiding the hostages of the Oct 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.

• Hezbollah is another Iran-sponsored outfit attacking Israel from the northern side. It is building up a similar front as Hamas, and soon, Israel will have to contend with the same problem on their north side.

• Houthis are Iran-sponsored outfits in Yemen - far away from Israel. But they have also targeted Israel using long-range rockets and missiles.

• Regional Militias backed by Iran in Iraq and Syria target the US and Israeli interests [source: Atlantic Council]. These militias have allowed Iranian armed forces to create supply lines and access routes to the Syrian border of Israel and to Hezbollah forces.

In such a scenario, if Iran gets access to nuclear weapons, the risks for Israel go up substantially. The threat of dirty nuclear bombs, direct nuclear missile strikes and saturation attacks using some nuclear missiles/drones put Israel at extreme existential risk. Israel must heed this threat, and it must act pre-emptively if it wants to survive.

The confused approach of the US.

The US is a 250-year-old country rooted in 500 years of historical context from its European origins. The Europeans have erased from their collective memories what happened before the 1500s. The result is a remarkable ignorance and confidence on the part of the British and their successors, the US. The resulting stupidity, called Kissinger doctrine, means the US has played on both sides of the aisle in the case of Iran.

The US had the Shah of Iran and Pakistan as allies that it wanted to use against the USSR. Consequently, the USSR played Iraq and Afghanistan in the region. After the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, the US started supporting Saddam's Iraq against Ayatollah's Iran.

Iranian leverage with terrorists in Lebanon and other places led Regan to open dialogue with Iran to get back US hostages. However, the failure to obtain the release of US hostages and Saddam's invasion of Kuwait meant relations were cold in the Bush Sr. era. It morphed into a sanction-and-forget policy followed by Clinton and Bush Jr.

This policy changed under Obama, who approved of Iran's civilian nuclear use developments. Obama released the economic sanctions, giving a second life to the radical regime. Iran used this opportunity to deploy civilian technologies for developing atomic weapons.

Trump reversed the policy to stringent sanctions. Trump even ended food-for-oil programs with Iran, creating internal pressure on the regime. But, Biden reverted back to the Obama policy, releasing billions of dollars to Iran and approving the supply of some strategic tech to Iran. This gave the regime another lifeline.

The regime quickly doubled down its efforts by choking internal protests and supplying proxies in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. They also accelerated the development of bomb-grade nuclear material.

In a way, the Oct 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel provided some strategic space and diversion for the Iranian regime to achieve nuclear capability. However, Israel was watching.

India's position

India has had long-term relations with the Iranian people. However, India's relations with the Iranian regime are different.

Under the US-backed Shah, Iran was adversarial to India and pursued pro-Pakistan policies. Iran provided Pakistan with military support during this time.

Following the Islamic Revolution, trade relations between Iran and India have improved. This is because Shia Iran has difficulty aligning with Sunni Pak and Afghanistan. Iran and India have significant trade interests.

During the Bush Sr. and Clinton eras, India continued to trade with Iran under the food-for-oil scheme. Iran has also leased the Chabahar port to India, creating access to Afghanistan. The trade was later stopped by Trump in his first term. But Chabahar still provides access to Afghanistan for US aid and Indian trade with Afghanistan.

Despite the good trade relations, Iranian Ayatollahs are anti-India. If they could Islamize India, they would drop everything and join the other radicals. Therefore, an Iran free from the influence of both radicals and the US is in India's interest.

In Sum

The position of Israel and the US is understandable. Unlike the majority in Gaza and Palestine, the majority of Iranian people are more interested in development and well-being. Or it so appears. So, it makes sense for a radical regime to be eliminated.

But who are we to impose a preferred regime on the Iranian people. It has to be up to the Iranian people to choose their leaders. In a way, it is right that Israel has restricted its goal to the elimination of the nuclear and missile-strike capability of Iran rather than forcing a regime change. If regime change happens, hopefully towards a more democratic rule, it will be welcome.

The conflict also raises many important questions about nuclear energy. Is it valid to deny Iran access to nuclear energy for peaceful civilian purposes? Who gets to decide which countries can develop nuclear power? These are questions worth deliberating. Instead of a back-room, hush-hush discussions, it is best done in the open.

Iran's current state is a result of outside interference. First, the British, the Americans, the radical Islamists and others. Today, we may be at a point where we can free Iranian people to choose their own fate. I hope we will not betray them.

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