China's interest in India & Indian Ocean Region
China's interest in India & Indian Ocean Region
Chinese spy ships regularly tour Indian Ocean to keep a close eye on India. That is because India is geo-strategically critical.
China recently sent spy ships to keep an eye on the Indian missile launches. The missile launch was rescheduled. There is a reason why China is interested in India and the Indian Ocean Region. It is not just because of our border disputes.
India is geo-strategically critical.
India’s strategic location can be better understood in terms of oil routes. Access to oil was a decisive factor in all the wars since and including World War II. (You can refer to Daniel Yergin’s The Prize for an understanding of the oil industry). Now, here is a picture of oil trade routes from Geopolitical futures:
You can see the geopolitical importance of India. India has access choke points carrying about 40 million barrels per day - 4X flow at all other choke points put together. These chokepoints are within striking distance of a reasonably competent Navy. If there is an all-out war, India can choke oil supply lines.
The importance of this region has not escaped others, particularly the US. The US and its allies have fully operational and capable bases in the IOR. But no matter how prominent and influential a base is, there are limits to force projection from such bases. But the Indian Ocean region is India’s backyard. India can project force all it wants.
No surprise that China is interested in this area.
The Chinese have a two-pronged strategy for this energy choke.
First, they have built extensive road networks to central Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative. But one crucial component of this terrestrial network for energy supplies is China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Its future is clouded by the Baloch revolution in Pakistan and India’s direct access to CPEC in the Pak-Occupied Kashmir Region. India demonstrated a decisive attack capability to cut off CPEC during recent Balakot strikes.
The second Chinese counter is to encircle India with naval bases - a string of pearls. These bases may be supported by China’s own Aircraft carrier. Therefore China is also building aircraft carriers. Its third aircraft carrier, Fujian, will be commissioned in a year or two. The Chinese have also developed unmanned underwater vehicles and a drone carrier ship to go along with it.
If successful, China can curtail India’s force projection capability. For more details on the balance of naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region, look at the map below:
With India and the US coming closer as allies, bilaterally and through initiatives like QUAD and QUAD+, China is becoming wary. Hence the increased surveillance.
In Sum
India has also been counter-monitoring the Chinese ships entering the IOR, and we have extensive surveillance facilities at all the chokepoints. But we cannot be complacent or over-reliant on allies.
India needs a well-equipped Navy to counter the Chinese threat. We need a better drone strategy (ariel, land and sea) to counter the Chinese. And we need an intelligent foreign policy to thwart Chinese encirclement.